INFLATION AND MONETARY TRANSMISSION CHANNELS: THE CASE OF UZBEKISTAN

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Published: 2025-08-28
Updated: 2025-08-28

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Jasurbek Jahongir ugli Sotvoldiev
H. Disman M.S
G‘olib Davronovich Tashmanov

Abstract

This paper analyzes the regulation of inflation in Uzbekistan through monetary transmission channels. Although the inflation rate has been declining between 2022 and 2025, understanding how the central bank’s interest rate, exchange rate, and monetary policy instruments affect inflation dynamics is crucial. In 2022, the annual inflation rate was 11.45%, while in 2023 and 2024 it fell to 9.95% and 9.36% respectively, and in 2025 it reached 8.7% (IMF, World Bank, CEIC, FRED). Currently, Uzbekistan is in the process of introducing an inflation targeting regime, but the effectiveness of the interest rate channel remains weak; instead, exchange rate movements and monetary aggregates have shown stronger effects (Hespeler, 2011; Tolliboyevich, 2024; Inkhomiddinov, 2025; IMF 2025). The study applies VAR/VECM, SVAR models, and Least Squares with Breaks to evaluate the effectiveness of monetary transmission channels and provide policy

Article Details

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Vol. 4 No. 7 (2025): Results of National Scientific Research International Journal

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Articles

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